CNBC reported the following:
Iran’s reaction to US sanctions could cause an ‘unintended’ military conflict
September 5, 2018
Iran’s reaction to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions in November could lead to some kind of “unintended military escalation” – a risk currently underappreciated by markets, RBC Capital Markets closely-watched oil market expert Helima Croft said on Wednesday. …
“An unintended military escalation through miscalculation continues to be one of the most underappreciated risks in our view,” Croft and her team warned.
“Even if the probability of such a scenario remains relatively low, it would serve as the ultimate high-impact event for oil prices.” …
Sanctions on Iran’s oil industry are being re-imposed by the U.S. on November 4 after President Trump’s decision to withdraw from an international nuclear deal. …
The U.S. has warned other countries that they too will be hit by secondary sanctions if they buy Iran’s oil.
The sanctions are expected to lead to export losses for the Islamic republic that surpass 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) during the first quarter of 2019.
“Beyond the barrel loss and the tightening fundamental backdrop, we think oil’s fear premium could stage a comeback depending on the Iranian response,” Croft and her team wrote. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/irans-reaction-to-us-sanctions-could-lead-to-military-conflict.html
Well, the idea of “unintended military escalation” is consistent with my long held view that there would be “unintended consequences” for various policies and actions from US President Donald Trump.
Will there be “military escalation” in the region?
Let us look at some passages from the Bible:
1 The burden against the Valley of Vision.
What ails you now, that you have all gone up to the housetops, 2 You who are full of noise, A tumultuous city, a joyous city? Your slain men are not slain with the sword, Nor dead in battle. 3 All your rulers have fled together; They are captured by the archers. All who are found in you are bound together; They have fled from afar. 4 Therefore I said, “Look away from me, I will weep bitterly; Do not labor to comfort me Because of the plundering of the daughter of my people.”
5 For it is a day of trouble and treading down and perplexity By the Lord God of hosts In the Valley of Vision — Breaking down the walls And of crying to the mountain. 6 Elam bore the quiver With chariots of men and horsemen, And Kir uncovered the shield. 7 It shall come to pass that your choicest valleys Shall be full of chariots,And the horsemen shall set themselves in array at the gate.
8 He removed the protection of Judah. You looked in that day to the armor of the House of the Forest; 9 You also saw the damage to the city of David, That it was great; And you gathered together the waters of the lower pool. 10 You numbered the houses of Jerusalem, And the houses you broke down To fortify the wall. 11 You also made a reservoir between the two walls For the water of the old pool. But you did not look to its Maker, Nor did you have respect for Him who fashioned it long ago.
12 And in that day the Lord God of hosts Called for weeping and for mourning,For baldness and for girding with sackcloth. 13 But instead, joy and gladness, Slaying oxen and killing sheep, Eating meat and drinking wine: “Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die!”
14 Then it was revealed in my hearing by the Lord of hosts,”Surely for this iniquity there will be no atonement for you, Even to your death,” says the Lord God of hosts. (Isaiah 22:1-14 NKJV)
Elam looks to be a reference to at least some in Iran. Kir is of interest as it has several possibilities. One is that the Bible tells that after Tiglath-Pileser king of Assyria took over Damascus, he moved Syrians to Kir. While this does not mean that Kir must (or must only) be a reference to Syria, the fact that Syria is an ally of Iran is interesting. Some believe Kir is an area in the south of Iran, while others suggest closer to the Black Sea. The Bible tells of a time when Kir will be destroyed (Isaiah 15:1b) and also says that Syria’s capital Damascus will be destroyed (Isaiah 17:1).
In Isaiah 22: 8, “Judah” is a reference to those in the land commonly called Israel–God will allow Israel to be attacked! In Isaiah 22:9, consider that “the damage to the city of David” is a reference to at least part of Jerusalem–and notice that the damage will be great.
So, yes, there will be military escalation in the region.
The pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal by Donald Trump is not a surprise as it is consistent with some of his earlier statements. Consider also something from my book Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse:
Donald Trump’s foreign policy statements have unsettled many—in the U.S.A. as well as foreign nations. He seems like he will more unpredictable than Richard Nixon.
There is also something referred to as the “law of unintended consequences.” There are consequences for the U.S.A., Europe, and elsewhere that have and will occur because of Donald Trump’s statements and actions. …
Iran and Prophecy
Donald Trump has stated that he wants to eliminate or at least change the “nuclear deal” with Iran (Wilkinson T. Trump’s plans to scuttle or amend the Iran nuclear deal remain a work in progress. Los Angeles Times, November 14, 2016).
He also might be more willing than the Obama Administration to trigger enforcement provisions if he feels Iran has violated portions of the agreement.
Iran would not like to see either of those actions and continues to show some of its nuclear ambitions: after Donald Trump’s election, Iran declared it would pursue development of nuclear powered ships (Norman L. Europe Hopeful Trump Will Stick With Iran Nuclear Deal. Wall Street Journal, December 13, 2016).
Because Bible prophecy indicates that it will be primarily Arabic nations that support the final King of the South (Daniel 11:40-43; Ezekiel 30:1-8), though with some (probably temporary per Daniel 11:25-26) support from Turkey (and possibly Pakistan), it is not biblically possible that Iran can truly be the leader of the Islamic world as it seems to want to be. Also, because it is basically due east of Jerusalem, Iran should not be considered to be a candidate to be the final ‘King of the South’ of biblical prophecy.
Despite its posturing and relative military strength, Iran will be somehow effectively neutralized (cf. Ezekiel 32:24). This could perhaps be from an attack involving Israel and/or internal civil unrest — this could also include electromagnetic (EMP) or similar weapons used against Iran (Jeremiah 49:34-39).
It is of prophetic interest to note that the small nation of Israel is prophesied to one day be attacked by some that seem to have connection to Iran (Isaiah 22:1-14).
Iran may decide to strike out against Israel, and possibly Jerusalem (cf. Isaiah 22:7-8) if a Trump Administration and/or Israel takes actions it does not like.
Iran has weapons that can cause damage. Furthermore, the U.S.A. itself (as well as is the State of Israel) is vulnerable to EMP type attacks and/or items such as biological weapons, chemical weapons, terrorism, nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, etc. because of a conflict involving Iran, Syria, and/or others.
But should this occur, this would NOT be the final destruction of the U.S.A. Prophetically, Iran would not end up faring well (cf. Ezekiel 32:24-25). (Thiel B. Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse. Nazarene Books, 2017)
We also put together the following related video:
Could Iran and Syria combine to attack the state of Israel? The media has placed hopes on Russia to prevent such conflict. Some Protestant and Jewish sources point to Russia as an ally to Iran to invade Israel to fulfill Ezekiel 38. Can explanations based on Ezekiel 38 possibly come to pass before Jesus returns? How does it involve silver and gold? What does Ezekiel 38 really teach about its time period? Are there prophecies in Isaiah 22 that point to the possible destruction of part of Jerusalem by an alliance of Iran and Syria? What about Isaiah 17 and the destruction of Damascus? Could Jeremiah 49 be referring to destruction coming to Iran? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more.
Here is a link to that video: Iran & Syria vs Israel? Russia?
There will be military escalation in the Middle East.
Yes, decisions and statements by US President Donald Trump will be a factor–though not the only one.
There will also be many more “unintended consequences” of his policies and practices.
Related Podcast: Iran & Syria vs Israel? Russia?