Might Iran be a threat to the house of cards known as financial derivatives?

(Grok AI illustration)

COGwriter

Nick Giambruno sent out the following in an email today:

Financial WMD: How Iran Could Trigger a Global Economic Collapse

Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.”

He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive, far-reaching damage to the global economy. …

So why bring this up now?

Because the recent war between Israel, the US, and Iran is far from over. At some point, a far more serious confrontation between the US and Iran appears inevitable—and when it comes, it will almost certainly disrupt the flow of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

To call that a severe supply disruption would be an understatement.

Consider this.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.

It’s the world’s single-most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route.

Five of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait—border the Persian Gulf, as does Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Strait of Hormuz is their only sea route to the open ocean… and world markets. …

Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card.

Analysts believe it could take weeks to reopen, if at all.  …

Iran holds a knife to the throat of the global economy. …

If war with Iran proceeds and Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, I think the effect on the price of oil will be at least as severe as it was during the 1973 oil shock, which saw oil prices go up 4x.

A similar move today could see oil prices above $275 a barrel. …

This could set off a cascade of defaults and margin calls that ripple through the global financial system—and make 2008 look tame by comparison. …

Iran’s true nuclear option isn’t a warhead—it’s a financial WMD, setting off a chain reaction by shutting down the Strait and sending oil prices through the roof, detonating the derivatives bomb at the heart of the global financial system.

Yes, there are things that Iran could do to impact global markets.

Iran may well be involved in triggering a global financial crisis.

As far as the derivative threat, for many reasons, they have always been a risk.

Years ago, Michael Snyder posted the following:

Could 65 Trillion Dollars In “Hidden” Derivatives Cause The Entire Global Financial System To Crash?

December 5, 2022

If you thought that the collapse of FTX was something, just wait until the entire global financial system comes crashing down all around us.  Most people just assume that the system is being managed by rational people that behave in rational ways, but of course countless investors assumed the same things about FTX.  Sadly, the global financial system has slowly but surely been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world.  It is a colossal Ponzi scheme, and once in a while authorities give us a little peek into what is really going on behind the curtain.

For example, this week the Bank for International Settlements released a report that warned that 65 trillion dollars in “hidden” currency derivatives could potentially be a major threat to the stability of the entire system

Last year, the total value of all goods and services produced in the entire world was just 96 trillion dollars.

So we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable.

Everything will be okay as long as financial conditions remain relatively stable.

But BIS analysts warn that “the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed” we could have an enormous crisis on our hands…

According to the BIS report, banks outside the U.S. are particularly vulnerable

For researchers at the BIS, it’s the sheer scale of the swaps that’s worrying. They estimate that banks headquartered outside the US carry $39 trillion of this debt — more than double their on-balance sheet obligations and ten times their capital. …

In all my years of writing, I have never been more concerned about the short-term economic outlook them I am right now.

It is very likely that 2023 will be a really hard year for the U.S. economy, and of course this comes at a time when the entire globe is being hit by crisis after crisis. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/could-65-trillion-dollars-in-hidden-derivatives-cause-the-entire-global-financial-system-to-crash/

Notice something about derivatives:

August 13, 2025

In today’s global economy, nearly every financial product, asset, and service seems to have a derivative attached to it. From oil to oranges, mortgages to memes, and stocks to student loans, everything has been sliced, bundled, and bet on. The term “derivative” might sound technical, but its role in transforming our financial system into a high-stakes betting table is anything but boring. This article takes a deep dive into how derivatives evolved from risk management tools into speculative weapons that dictate the fate of entire nations.

The Concept of Derivatives Explained

What Is a Derivative in Finance?

A derivative is a financial contract whose value depends on—or is derived from—the performance of an underlying asset, index, or interest rate. Common underlying instruments include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and market indexes.

There are several types of derivatives:

Futures contracts

Options

Swaps

Forwards

Originally, these tools were designed to hedge against risk—like a farmer locking in the future price of crops. But today, they often serve as speculative bets made by traders who may never own the underlying asset.

The Origin Story: Hedging and Risk Management

In the 19th century, commodity derivatives were created to help farmers and merchants stabilize prices in volatile markets. This was practical and productive. But with the birth of Wall Street as a powerhouse, these tools started morphing into speculative instruments. Risk management took a backseat to profit-chasing.

The Evolution of Derivatives Markets

From Agricultural Futures to Wall Street Tricks

What began with simple agricultural futures soon expanded to include all manners of assets. …

Many derivative transactions occur outside the reach of traditional regulators in what’s called the “shadow banking system.” This includes hedge funds, private equity firms, and unregulated financial instruments that operate in the dark, increasing systemic risk without public accountability. https://vocal.media/trader/everything-is-a-derivative-how-they-turned-the-world-into-a-betting-table

Yes, US and foreign (European) banks are highly involved with dangerous financial items like derivatives. The Trump-Vance Administration, like the Biden-Harris, the Trump-Pence, Obama-Biden Administrations before it, has been dangerously increasing debt.

In many ways the “house of cards”, that the financial systems in the Western nations are linked to, will collapse.

As far as risks associated with derivatives go, notice the following:

The world’s scariest story: trading in derivatives

Bad as these scandals are and vast as the money involved in them is by any normal standard, they are mere blips on the screen, compared to the risk that is still staring us in the face: the lack of transparency in derivative trading that now totals in notional amount more than $700 trillion. That is more than ten times the size of the entire world economy. Yet incredibly, we have little information about it or its implications for the financial strength of any of the big banks.

Moreover the derivatives market is steadily growing. “The total notional value, or face value, of the global derivatives market when the housing bubble popped in 2007 stood at around $500 trillion… The Over-The-Counter derivatives market alone had grown to a notional value of at least $648 trillion as of the end of 2011… the market is likely worth closer to $707 trillion and perhaps more,” writes analyst Jenny Walsh in The Paper Boat.

The market has grown so unfathomably vast, the global economy is at risk of massive damage should even a small percentage of contracts go sour.  Its size and potential influence are difficult just to comprehend, let alone assess.”

The bulk of this derivative trading is conducted by the big banks. Bankers generally assume that the likely risk of gain or loss on derivatives is much smaller than their “notional amount.” Wells Fargo for instance says the concept “is not, when viewed in isolation, a meaningful measure of the risk profile of the instruments” and “many of its derivatives offset each other”.

However as we learned in 2008, it is possible to lose a large portion of the “notional amount” of a derivatives trade if the bet goes terribly wrong, particularly if the bet is linked to other bets, resulting in losses by other organizations occurring at the same time. The ripple effects can be massive and unpredictable.

Banks don’t tell investors how much of the “notional amount” that they could lose in a worst-case scenario, nor are they required to. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2013/01/08/five-years-after-the-financial-meltdown-the-water-is-still-full-of-big-sharks/

There are many types of financial transactions that have little, if any, true value and are putting the markets and the world economy at risk.

Where might this lead?

As far as economic concerns go, consider that in a sermon on July 7, 1984, the late Herbert W. Armstrong wrote:

And I can see now, the event that is going to trigger the formation of the reunification in Europe; the resurrection of the medieval Holy Roman Empire that we’ve been looking forward to that is prophesied to come…

But I believe that some event is going to happen suddenly just like out a blue sky that is going to shock the whole world and is going to cause the nations in Europe to realize they must unite! … Well now I think I can see what may be the very event that is going to trigger…that is the economic situation in the world

The whole banking structure in the United States is a network all jointed together. But not only that, one nation has to deal with other nations and imports and exports. And so they have to have a means of transforming money from one nation to another. And so the banking structure is international and interwoven…

Now when the financial structure breaks down, all civilization is going to break down…

The combination of economic issues, civil unrest, immigration matters, Islamic concerns, and signs and wonders apparently will result in a fully unified Europe. Iran could be a trigger for some of this.

The Bible prophesies that Europe will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13) and take steps to increase its gold (cf. Daniel 11;40-43).

This will also coincide with increases in the debt of the USA–which will not end well for the USA (Habakkuk 2:6-8) nor its Anglo-Saxon descended allies (cf. Daniel 8:24-25; Jeremiah 30:7).

The USA dollar will end up being worth only its scrap value as the USA itself will fall.

Yes, there are dangers with debt and derivatives.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

The End of US Dollar Dominance Is the USA losing its economic status? What about the petro-gold-yuan? A related video is also available: US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan.
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold? A video of related interest may be: Germany, Gold, and the US Dollar.
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. Two related sermon are available: Identifying the USA and its Destruction in Prophecy and Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin? A related sermon is also available: The Bible, the USA, and the King of the West.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? What about other peoples? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about Africa, Asia, South America, and the Islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; and Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies.
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is are links to related videos: European history and the Bible, Europe In Prophecy, The End of European Babylon, and Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European? Here is a link to a related sermon in the Spanish language: El Fin de la Babilonia Europea.
The Times of the Gentiles Has there been more than one time of the Gentiles? Are we in it now or in the time of Anglo-America? What will the final time of the Gentiles be like? A related sermon is available and is titled: The Times of the Gentiles.
Donald Trump in Prophecy Prophecy, Donald Trump? Are there prophecies that Donald Trump may fulfill?  Are there any prophecies that he has already helped fulfill?  Is a Donald Trump presidency proving to be apocalyptic?  Three related videos are available: Donald: ‘Trump of God’ or Apocalyptic? and Donald Trump’s Prophetic Presidency and  Donald Trump and Unintended Consequences.
Unintended Consequences and Donald Trump’s Presidency: Is Donald Trump Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic, Greco-Roman Catholic, Buddhist, and other America-Related Prophecies?  Is Donald Trump going to save the USA or are there going to be many disastrous unintended consequences of his statements and policies? What will happen. The link takes you to a book available at Amazon.com.
Unintended Consequences and Donald Trump’s Presidency: Is Donald Trump Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic, Greco-Roman Catholic, Buddhist, and other America-Related Prophecies? Kindle edition is available for only US$3.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Unintended Consequences and Donald Trump’s Presidency: Is Donald Trump Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic, Greco-Roman Catholic, Buddhist, and other America-Related Prophecies?

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